Fight Analysis
Reasons to Watch UFC Mexico
SAT, FEB 24 / 10:00 PM EST / ESPN+
Arena CDMX
Mexico City, Mexico
This weekend the UFC heads to Mexico for the first time since 2019. I will cover here the main and co-main events, which are the key matchups in their respective divisions. If you need a reason to throw on the fights this Saturday, keep reading ahead.
Flyweight Fight
Brandon Moreno (27-7-2, #1) vs Brandon Royval (15-7, #3)
This is just a good fight. They both have lost to current champion Alexandre Pantoja, so it’s not definitely a number one contenders match, but it is an important one for that #1 spot in the division (behind the champion).
Case for Brandon Royval:
“This man is a lot of fun to watch” - Micheal Bisping.
He has a lot of ways to win - he likes to brawl in the standup, but he has all kinds of other strikes in his bag of tricks that he catches fighters with, including flying knees and spinning backfists.
He’s got submissions too - he’s a man who likes to jump the gilly from time to time, so he’s a friend of this site. Overall, Bisping put it best - he’s just a lot of fun.
Case for Brenden Moreno:
He’s a fan favorite everywhere he goes, so I can only imagine the pop he’s gonna get from the Mexican fans. If you don’t know what I mean, watch any one of the four fights he had with Deiveson Figueiredo, and you will see why people love him.
He can win with pressure and his undeniable heart. It sounds corny, but he’s a great fighter who can be uplifted by his country as rounds go on.
Prediction:
These two have fought before a while back in 2020. The fight was highly entertaining and was unfortunately stopped with seconds left in round one, ultimately caused by a Royval dislocated shoulder. It was a close round otherwise, but it seems like Moreno was getting the better of him and was ultimately driving the pace.
Prediction? Moreno wins in front of all of Mexico and enters back into the title conversation.
Featherweight Fight
Yair Rodriguez (16-4, #3) vs Brian Ortega (15-3, #4)
This fight just became a whole lot more interesting with the result of UFC 298 coming to pass. With Volk having been dethroned and Holloway lured (temporarily) away to Lightweight, the door is now back open for Ortega and Rodriguez.
Case for Yair:
His striking is unique and unpredictable. It’s hard to find training partners that can replicate what he can do, making him a matchup problem for most other fighters. I don’t see him getting caught in some complicated choke while on the ground. If this fight does get to the canvas, he will likely be looking to get back up to his feet as quick as possible.
He’s going to fighting in front of his fan base - the man is a true Mexican fighter. He trains at altitude in some ancient Aztec temple and customized his interm championship belt in the colors of his country. He will be looking to deliver a big win for the mexicans in attendance.
Case for Ortega:
His Ju-Jitsu and grappling is unreal. I’ll use this as another excuse to post the clip of his guillotine he had on Volkanovski that almost got him gold. Any other fighter not named Volk this might have been over:
Ortega Guillotine Choke on Volkanovski Clip
He, like Yair, has beaten everyone in the division not named Alex and Max. He’s dangerous at all times, and if he can get his hands on Yair, he will be able to control (and maybe finish) the fight.
Prediction:
This fight is also a rematch, and the first fight also ended too early due to a dislocated arm. It was competitive with Rodriguez landing some good strikes and Ortega winning some grappling exchanges (before the one that caused the injury).
I think Yair wins this fight. He has been more active, he has tasted gold already when he became interim champ last year. His creative brand of striking will be too much for Ortega to handle. He will do all he can to keep this standing, even if it means slowing the pace down.
UFC Mexico Gambling Thoughts
Just remember Jump the Gilly motto:
Tequila before betting, you'll be regretting
Betting before tequilla, your pockets will be filla
Anyway, here are the current odds and what I am thinking for bets.
Rodriguez vs Ortega (3 rounds)
Yair Rodriguez: -155
Brian Ortega: +130
Over 2.5: -266
Under 2.5: +130
My bet here is Rodriguez. I would stay away from betting the finish, but the over is a pretty good bet. Ortega has a chin on him, Yair hit him with a strong, clean right hand in the first fight and Ortega had no issue with it.
Moreno vs Royval (5 rounds)
Brandon Moreno: -290
Brandon Royval: +235
Over 3.5: -140
Under 3.5: +110
I’m betting Moreno here, probably in combination with the over (or move the over to 2.5 if the sportsbook allows it). This fight could get finished.. but it’s likely going to at least go 3 rounds, if not the distance.
There you have it - the UFC is all in on Mexico this weekend and Jump The Gilly is all in its Mexican fighters. Let’s drink some tequila and watch some awesome fights on ESPN this Saturday.
