Fight Analysis
UFC 298 Breakdown
Sat, Feb 17 / 10:00 PM EST / Main Card (ESPN+/PPV)
Honda Center
Anaheim, CA, United States
Goodbye Super Bowl LVIII, hello UFC 298.
Fun fact - Volk has been featherweight champ since before Patrick Mahomes ever competed in a Super Bowl. Kansas City has now won their third championship and have officially established their dynasty. Now, Alexander Volkanovski looks to defend is title for the 6th time as he builds on a legacy of his own.
This card, in my opinion, has 4 great fights on it. So if you are looking for a reason to watch this Saturday, I got you covered. Let’s get into it.
Bantamweight Fight:
Merab Dvalishvili (16-4, #2) vs Henry Cejudo (16-3, #3)
Case for Merab:
Marab has a gas tank that can’t quit. He’s good everywhere. He may have been the current UFC bantamweight champion if he was willing to fight his friend and former champ Aljomain Sterling. Instead, Sean O’Malley played the game of thrones better, and Marab was left on the sidelines like Stanis Baratheon. There’s no other reason why he’s not fighting for a championship right now. We have seen Marab snatch victory from the jaws of defeat a few times - if you don’t know what I’m talking about watch these two fights below. I won’t spoil it.. other than it looked like each fight was a losing effort, until it wasn’t.
Merab Dvalishvili vs Marlon Moreas
Merab Dvalishvili vs Ricky Simon
Also, hes pretty funny at times. He stole the show at Henry's last fight when he was accidentally handed Sean O'Malley's jacket during a post-fight faceoff.
Case for Henry Cejudo:
Triple C has that name for a reason. The two weight division UFC champion and Olympic gold medalist almost came away with gold again last time he fought against Aljamain Sterling. He looked good in his comeback fight, and has a chance to get back on track here. I think if he can win the striking with his ferocious leg kicks and win the grappling exchanges for 15 minutes, he will come out on top.
He is a little more cringe at other peoples fights though for whatever thats worth..
Prediction:
No idea - other than this is probably going the distance in a 3 round fight. They both have crazy heart and cardio. I lean towards Merab just winning overall control with his relentless pace. I mean he had 49 takedown attempts vs Petr Yan.. he just doesn’t quit.
Betting angle? Merab moneyline or by decision (if the odds settle in above -200 for a straight bet).
Welterweight Fight:
Ian Garry (13-0, #10) vs Geoff Neal (14-5, #8)
Case for Garry:
He’s very tall for the division, which makes him a challenge in the striking battle if he can establish his space. So far he’s undefeated, and he likely has some extra motivation this fight to silence some of the shit talkers that have been attacking his personal life for the past 2 months. He would love nothing more than to come and make a statement this Saturday.
Case for Neal:
“Handz of Steel” Neal has one of the most dangerous combinations in the game. He will give the irishman’s chin a very good test here as I am sure he is looking for a statement win. He has already fought some of the divisions top contenders, his last defeat coming at the hands of unbeaten Shavkat Rakhmonov, who’s on the short list for a title shot now. Garry has not faced this level of competition yet. If he can get in range with that boxing approach, he has a very good chance at securing a victory.
Prediction:
I think the hype train stops here (for now) and Garry gets his first loss. I think he will have his hands full inside the octogon and out, he likely won’t have the fans in Anaheim on his side, and I think he will get out-struck.
If I were to bet? Neal moneyline at plus money.
Middleweight Fight:
Robert Whittaker (25-7, #3) vs Paulo Costa (14-2, #6)
Case for Whittaker:
“The Reaper” has been sitting at the top of the division for years now. Known for his knockout prowess, the world was shocked when it was Whittaker who was put out by now-champion Dricus Du Plessis. Dricus is more skilled and technical than maybe we knew, but I think Costa will be a better matchup, as he’s not as patient. I think the two throw hands, where I think Whittaker will be able to find his chin, or just simply land more punches.
Case for Paulo Costa:
He was the most drug tested fighter by USADA in 2023, and didn’t even fight. The man is looks like a Greek god, fighting by way of Brazil. Half of his fights in the UFC ended in a KO/TKO victory - if Dricus can stop Whittaker, so can Paulo Costa.
Wanna watch a fun fight to remind you that you’re probably out of shape and will never look like a sculpture? Watch this classic on YouTube (or elsewhere):
Prediction:
I think Whittaker gets back to his winning ways in Anehiem. It’s likely going to be a battle on the feet, and Whittaker just has more dangerous combinations and is a little more precise with his striking. I’d expect this to go three fun rounds where Whittaker gets his hand raised at the end.
Featherweight Championship Fight:
Alexander Volkanovski (26-3, C) vs Ilia Topuria (14-0, #3)
Case for Volk:
Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski has beaten everyone not named “Islam” in the UFC. He has not lost at featherweight in the UFC since joining in 2016. He got the title in 2019, and has been running the show ever since.
Volk is as well rounded as they come. We will find out how good Topuria’s wrestling may be, we already know how good Volk’s is. Where I really think he will have an advantage is with his speed. Those fast, stinging shots seem to catch fighters by surprise often - and I don’t think Topuria has fought anyone with striking close to the level of Volk.
Case for Topuria:
While Volk is coming off a brutal head kick KO loss to Islam Makhachev, Topuria has never been defeated.. ever.
He is known for his punches that have secured him many knockouts, but Ilia also has a good ground game and wrestling. His is the first ever Georgian to get his Brazilian Ju-Jitsu black belt (along with his brother Alex). We have only seen so much of it as he’s been doing so much damage on the feet since being in the UFC. He is a truly well rounded fighter with many paths to victory in his first title shot.
Two fights ago, we saw Topuria overthrowing against Bryce Mitchell. Last time we saw him againts Josh Emmett, he looked a lot more patient as he dismantled his opponent for 5 rounds. This version of Topuria looks like someone who can win a 5 round championship bout.
Prediction:
Does anyone else think it’s weird that Ilia Topuria has never thrown a kick to the head or body in his MMA career? I just found that out.
As good as he is, I think Volk will remind the world why he’s one of the greatest of all time. Topuria is a great fighter, but it’s not his time yet. A good humbling loss will just be a chapter in what should be a great run at featherweight for Topuria. Sometimes being undefeated doesn’t help you, and I think it’s time for a lesson in defeat.
If I were a betting man? Volk out strikes and outwrestles Topuria for 5 rounds and wins by unanimous decision.
Well there you have it - UFC 298 is going to be a fun watch. The matchmakers did their job well for our entertainment. Let’s go Anaheim, show us you’re known for more than just Disneyland and the Ducks and make that atmosphere as electric as it deserves to be.
