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UFC 302 Thoughts and Predictions
 

 

Sat, Jun 1 / 10:00 PM EDT

Prudential Center, Newark United States

 

 

It seemed like yesterday Dustin Poirier lit Miami on fire with his second round KO of Benoit Saint-Denis. After no less than 6 guillotine attempts, Dustin decided to get it done the old fashioned way.

 

 

 

Now, he has been given one more chance to get undisputed gold around his waist. It’s stuff of fairy tails, pixie dust, rainbows and unicorns. Enter the bad guy..

 

 

Image of Islam Makhachev saying that none of the other lightwieghts earned thier BJJ blackbelt (probably)

 

 

Lets get into the fights, in particular the main and co-main event as that is where I think the meat and potatoes of card lies.

 

 

Lightweight Bout

Islam Makhachev (25-1, C) vs Dustin Poirier (13-8, #4)

 

Case for Islam Makhachev:

 

He is pound for pound the best fighter in the world, for good reason. Coming off of back to back title defenses against Alex Volkanovski, Islam is looking to make his first title defense against a lightweight this Saturday. 

 

What can’t he do? We know how good his grappling is, and his striking has looked like some of the best in the UFC after his vicious head kick KO of Volk.   

 

 

 

 

Honestly he looks like Khabib with more power and higher level striking. A true mixed martial artist and great champion, Islam looks like an unstoppable force.

 

 

Case for Dustin Poirier:

 

“The Diamond” is getting his 3rd crack at undisputed gold this Saturday, and has another tough test ahead of him. I’ll say similar things as everyone else.. “outside of his boxing, Islam is better everywhere”. That being said, Dustin isn’t just a boxer.. he also has excellent wrestling and he is a black belt in ju-jitsu (even if Islam says he needs to check that).

 

 

 

 

 

Many joke about Dustin jumping the gilly, including Islam, Khabib, Dustin himself, and last but not least Jump The Gilly MMA. I mean I have “don’t be silly jump the gilly” stamped on my website since its creation in January. But is it that funny to think that he may actually complete the guillotine finish at some point before he retires? I mean the first one he has on Khabib was tight.. so much so even he admitted it.

 

 

 

 

However, Dustin has some other paths to victory that will make sense to anyone who has seen him fight. His ability to survive near finishes and make fights into a war is why he fought for the BMF title last year. Bad mother fucker is a great way to describe Dustin if you only had three words to do so.

 

 

(Dustin wearing Marvin Hagler's WAR hat, which he only wears on fight day)

 

 

Khabib Influence:

 

 

“Was he strong? I mean he’s strong, I don’t know if he’s the strongest guy I’ve ever fought.. but he’s strong. They are all strong… nothing overwhelming or that surprised me. It’s just his understanding of balance and weight placement was incredible”

 

 - Dustin Poirier on Khabib's grappling

 

 

Islam has Khabib back in his corner again this weekend, who holds a victory over Poirier back in 2019. Coach Khabib is almost as dominant as fighter Khabib. Islam said earlier this week “the eagle has landed” in New Jersey, and how meaningful Khabib is to him as a cornerman, friend, brother, etc. If you have ever seen a Rocky movie where he seems down and out till the reluctant wife/girlfriend/trainer shows up, that’s the boost Islam is likely feeling.

 

 

 

 

Islam said this week that having Khabib in his corner makes wrestling 20% better, striking 20% better, and gameplane much better. He’s going to be on a whole other level than we have seen recently, which is a little scary.

 

On the other side of the coin, Dustin Poirier will be the first person to have fought both Khabib and Islam. He has experience dealing with that unique brand of Dagestani wrestling. Will he be able to learn lessons from the Khabib fight and use it to effectively take down his protege? Or will history repeat itself as Dustin once again is dragged into deep waters?

 

 

Record Comparison:

 

Speaking of Dustin fighting both Khabib and Islam in his career, let’s talk about the records of both fighters. Yes Dustin has 8 losses to Islam’s 1, but look at who they have fought..

 

 

         

Islam Makhachev's  Poirier's Record (last 12 fights)
 

 

Yes, Islam is on a 13 fight win streak and has looked unstoppable. Beating Charles Oliveira for the belt, then defending it twice against the then featherweight champion is as impressive as it gets. But over the whole 13 fight win streak? Not a ton of other names jump off the page. Bobby Green and Dan Hooker are great fighters, but they are not championship caliber.

 

 

Dustin Poirier's Record (last 12 fights)

 

 

Now look at Dustin’s record - not as shiny looking. No win streak either…actually he is 2-2 in his last 4 fights. But look at who he has fought… Gaethje, Chandler, Oliveira, Khabib, McGregor (x3), Holloway, etc etc etc. the list goes on of legendary fighters he’s taken on, battles he has fought. By the way, he’s beaten Bobby Green and Dan Hooker as well.

 

To me? Dustin actually has the better resume all things considered. I know Islam is much younger and may end up with the more legendary career in the end.. but the fight is in a few days and one fighter has more experience going to war and overcoming odds than the other.

 

Prediction:

 

Islam will try to make it a highly technical fight.. Dustin will make it dirty. Poirier will survive some moments both in the stand up and on the ground where we think he’s in serious trouble. Somewhere in rounds 2 or 3, Dustin will catch Islam with his boxing/brawling and shock the world.

 

Dustin Poirier by KO.

 

 

 

 

Middleweight Bout

Sean Strickland (28-6, #1) vs Paulo Costa (14-3, #7)

 

 

 

 

I don’t know if this is officially a “number one contender" fight with Khamzat, Whittaker, and Jared Cannonier all fighting in June as well. Stakes are still high and if nothing else, it’s going to be a lot of fun.

 

Case for Sean Strickland:

 

Strickland loves to spar. He loves to spar so much, he barely trains anything else. He could probably spar 20 rounds if needed as his gas tank is also seemingly endless. If we have learned anything from last year, Stricklands style is a perfect matchup for kickboxers.

 

Strickland will walk down Costa, put constant pressure on, and constantly put on volume of his own. If this fight goes the distance, it will be Sean getting his armed raised in the end.

 

Case for Paulo Costa:

 

Costa is a great fighter, and maybe had one of his better outings in his recent lost to Whittaker. 

 

Strickland can be a little chinny, so Costa will look to pick his spots and break the Philly shell, and secure I finish inside the distance. Can he keep Strickland at range and in the defense by mixing in some of those head kicks?

 

Physical Comparison:

 

Sean is self proclaimed white trash. He isn’t the most handsome man, but he’s a trailer park treasure that fans have come to love. Costa looks like a Greek god. With his glasses on he looks like Brazilian Superman. I swear I’m not sexually attracted to him..

 

 

 

 

 

10-8, Costa.

 

Prediction:

 

This will be similar to the fight we saw with Dricus Du Plessis and Strickland, except this time Sean gets his hand raised. I think this is a battle and close fight, with Sean just simply doing more damage over the course of 5 rounds.

 

Strickland by unanimous/split decision.

 

 

Other Intrigue:

 

My initial reaction to the rest of this card was thinking it’s pretty underwhelming. There’s a few more interesting fighters, but largely the main and the co-main are the most interesting fights by a mile.

 

With that said, Kevin Holland will look to bounce back after what what was a frustrating loss to Micheal Venom Page. He will have a much easier matchup as he is probably ranked much lower than his actual skill/value. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jailton Almeida is fighter we are all keeping an eye on. He looked like he was going to take the division by storm, finishing everyone in his first 6 UFC fights. In his last two performances, he has an uninspiring “lay and pray” victory over Derrick Lewis, then was knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. He thinks he missed out on what should have been a title shot next, but I think fans want to see more out of him first. And if this fat heavyweight he's up againts wins, it might be time to officially go down to light heavyweight for good..

 

 

 

 

Well that does it - off to UFC 302 we go. Will Dustin get the fairytale ending? Or will Islam continue to pick up where Khabib left off? Get your popcorn ready for what will be a great night of fights.

 

 

P.S. Dustin, anytime you want to call and merge brands, I am all ears. You can keep the hot sauce, I just want in on on the shirt game. I will be waiting for your call after the fight.