Fight Analysis
UFC 303: No Conor, No Problem (And Other Thoughts)
Sat, Jun 29 / 10:00 PM EDT
T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas United States
I had originally titled this article “Return of the Mac”, but that’s no longer going to work. The return of the Notorious Conor McGregor will have to wait, as his broken pinky toe was something he didn’t want to try and push through (which I think was wise on his part). The good news is, we will get that comeback fight still at some point.. and in addition get a championship fight we wouldn’t have otherwise.
When the rumors started circulating, the UFC pulled an Ari Gold on us, and refused to communicate anything until they had some good news. In one fell swoop, we heard Conor McGregor is out, Jamahal Hill is out, and we have a whole new main and co-main event. Let’s get into that (and other areas of intrigue).
Welterweight Bout
Ian Garry (15-0, #7) vs Michael “Venom” Page 22-2, #14)
This fight could easily be the co-main event.. and really should have started higher on the card when it was first announced. Two great strikers with high stakes for their respective futures. Both are on the road to a title shot eventually.. and a win for either puts them one step closer.
Prediction and Gambling Pick
Stylistically, a great matchup. I have been team MVP ever since I heard he was making the jump to UFC. I will put the link to a write up I did on why I think Page will be champion, as well as what I said about the Garry fight as well.
MVP: The Superstar, The Showman, The Future UFC Welterweight Champ
“Garry is still undefeated (outside of Colby giving him the nickname “Corner McGregor”). Fans would love to see MVP take his zero, and MVP would love to add a win over Gary to his resume.
I think stylistically he matches up well also. After his last fight, Kevin Holland admitted to being frustrated by the distance Page covers with his strikes. He appears to be on the outside, then is able to be right in your face with a fist or an elbow quickly. Striking at a distance will be pivotal in beating Gary, who has a big frame and loves to establish a good range to fight from.”
Pick: MVP (+120)
Light Heavyweight Bout
Anthony Smith (38-19, LHW #10) vs Roman Dolidze (12-3, #10 MW)
In a card that has been changed out more than Andy Dick’s vibrator (another Ari Gold reference), the co-main event has been shuffled around more than once. It started as Jamahal Hill vs Khalil Rountree.. which was likely a “number one contender” fight in the light heavyweight division. Then it was Hill vs Ulberg. Then Ulberg vs Anothony Smith. Now, Ulberg is out and Roman Dolidze is in.
Gotta give the UFC credit, they would not be defeated by the injury bug.
Prediction and Gambling Pick
I think this fight it’s pretty evenly matched, and Anthony Smith has surprised us in the past, but I expect this to turn into a grappling heavy match. Dolidze has the superior grappling, and I expect him to get control at some point in each round and never let go.
Pick: Dolidze (-148)
Featherweight Bout
Diego Lopez (24-6, #3) vs Brian Ortega (16-3, #14)
This is the battle for who has the best Ju Jitsu in the division (according to Lopez). This has serious “fight of the night” potential, which says something with the other exciting fighters on this card. If nothing else, you will see a world class clinic in Ju Jitsu and grappling in general.
Prediction and Gambling Pick
I struggle with this one as Lopez looks like one of the most legitimately hyped young fighters we have seen in a bit. Not to mention I think his striking is better than Ortega’s, giving Lopez more paths to victory. That being said, Ortega looked great against Yair Rodriguez last time out.. not to mention he’s been comparing himself to eagles being reborn or whatever the hell he’s been talking about.
Brian Ortega Talks About Eagle Rebirth
I still like the experience and ring time Ortega has to be the difference in this one. Plus he’s a good value bet here.
Pick: Ortega (+120)
Heavyweight Bout
Alex Pereira (10-2, C) vs Jiri Prochazka (30-4-1, #1) II
Well - what else can be said about Alex Pereira that has not already been said? No one has exploded on the scene quite like he has since 50 Cent dropped “Get Rich Or Die Trying”.
The man has been on a tear in 3 years in the UFC, and is putting his title on the line once more.. and on short notice. Jiri too - putting his ranking on the line and cashing in his title shot rematch on short notice. Two absolute savages will be going at it again on Saturday, and we are so lucky to get this fight dropped out of the sky for us fans.
Prediction and Gambling Pick
I think both fighters come in planning to get the finish. Neither one really wants to drag this fight out 5 rounds after taking it on short notice. I think history repeats itself.. as good and wild as Jiri can be, Alex has just seen it all before.. including Jiri in particular. That left hook won’t be denied.
Pick: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO (+120)
Also, here is a link to their first fight from last year if you haven’t seen it:
Alex Pereira vs Jiri Prochazka 1
Other Intrigue
Joe Pyfer makes his return on this card too. The hard hitting middleweight had a tough loss vs the crafty vet Jack Hermansson, as his hype train came to a screeching halt. I hope we can get back to the “Be Joe Pyfer” days and he makes a statement on Saturday.
Well there you have it. We won’t hear Foggy Dew play, but we will see an Amazon warrior and a Czech samurai do battle.. so I’ll take it!
BONUS
Why McGregor’s Pullout Was Smart
For a few years now, I have seen so much Conor hate. Some warranted, but most people saying the same old shit that was just that, shit. So much so I wrote an article about it to defend a multi millionaire.
Then the Chandler fight officially got announced. As it got closer, people shut up because they started getting amped to see Conor fight again. Ticket sales went through the roof in a record way. The press conference in Ireland sold out in like an hour. All was great - until the injury happened. Everyone started opening their yaps again with the same old generic comments. “Conor will never fight again” and “Conor is irrelevant, please stop giving him coverage”.
Yes, he pulled out with a broken pinky toe. Yes, he gave Rafael Dos Anjos shit in the past for pulling out with a broken foot. He deserves some heat.. however this was unquestionably the right move.
There is SO much on the line with this one, legacy being the biggest thing. He went into the trilogy fight with Dustin Poirier with an injury and paid a huge price.. a price that hurt his legacy. It’s the only thing money can’t buy and the only reason he’s still fighting. The comeback needs to be something he does healthy, or he risks making the same mistake again. He needs to be able to move quickly in there against Chandler, and a broken toe could definitely get in the way. Not to mention potentially hurt his offense/kicks.
Good on you Conor, I for one am happy to wait. When you make your comeback complete.. they will all shut up again.
DOUBLE BONUS
Why Ian Garry Sucks
So I have heard a lot of fighters talk this week about Garry, and how solid of a dude he is. I keep hearing how nice and respectful he is, but how that it is sad he’s decided to have the public persona he has.
I think there needs to be a new standard for fighters to follow. Talk lots of shit and create a persona if you want to help sell fights..but you better be funny. Otherwise, just be yourself. If you try to create a character and you don’t get over the fans, expect a lot of well deserved chuckhold comments to come your way.
Love him or hate him, I will leave you with a fighter that went over the top and made it work for him. And Ian, if you do happen to win this weekend, you know how to get that #4 spot in the rankings… just meet the three stipulations.
